What next in Nepal?

Surprised? Well everyone is. Who would have thought this result? Not even Maoists I am pretty sure. Now, after everyone’s initial misjudgments, there seems to be all shorts of analysis coming from all direction for how this happened and what will happen next. Is it Maoists doing too good or other big parties doing too badly or both?

In my “not so rigorous” analysis I have outlined few issues which caused this major political turnover.

1.Incompetence of NC and UML: The two biggest parties (Not anymore) Nepali Congress and UML lacked proper judgment in many issues. They depended too much on result of last election in 1999, still thought all the people are behind them and will back them even in big number with Maoists still struggling to throw away the terrorist tag and pro-royalists parties having no chance thanks to the rock bottom popularity of King. The election appeared no more than a cakewalk for them without realizing the big number (35%) of first time voters and frustration of old voters who tired after all the dirty politics wish nothing more than peace.

These two parties just talked much on changing the fate of the country without realizing its themselves who needed change even more. The parties who were such a vocal supporter of democracy lacked democratic practice within the party. Wouldn’t the people of Nepal have felt better if Girija Prasad hadn’t chosen his infamous daughter as minister for no known responsibility? Did Nepali Congress ever realize how the general public would feel before giving party’s nomination to the likes of Khum bahadur, Govinda Raj and Chiranjeevi Wagle despite their notorious misdeeds? Did UML ever realize that their top level politicians never have concrete plan for future even for the most sensitive issues of the country?

While these parties were complacent and were lost in reverie, Maoists were campaigning hard to win precious Nepalese votes and equally important (if not more) foreign approval. While Maoists were plastering city’s walls with posters and sending SMSs for their support UML and NC were busy in futile discussions. With NC and UML not doing any better people chose to give a chance to Maoists, what other options did they have?

2.People’s longing for Peace: After decade long civil war Nepalese people desired peace more than anything else. Many people caved in to the pressure exerted my Maoists that they will go back to jungle if they do badly in election (This certainly was a undemocratic and crappy politics but it played effectively for Maoists)

3.Anti Monarch Brain Wave: Nepalese prefer many different things in different situation but majority (if not all) hate one thing in common i.e., Monarchy. People depended more on Maoists than any other party for democratic republic. After all Republic Nepal was originally conceived by Maoists.

4.Violent Threats in Rural Nepal: No one can disagree, Maoists still terrorize people (may be not in the scale they used to do couple years ago but still they do). The past still hunts people in rural Nepal and we all know Nepal is more rural than urban.

So what will happen next? This certainly is the million dollar question. I know people having different political brain will have different opinions on the result. For some its entirely positive, some differ equally and many are not entirely sure whether this change will bring better changes in the country. Its certainly too early to predict what will happen next but from the results so far I have drawn few positives.

1.The result is an eye-opener for so called big guys of Nepalese politics. Their confidence that there is no replacement for them no matter what they do is shattered into pieces.

2.With loss of all (popular to little known) koiralas, chances are strong that Koirala Nepotism will end and much better politicians will get chance to move upward in political ladder within Nepali Congress. This fresh beginning will not only benefit the NC party but also the whole country.

3.Finally, this major shock has provided opportunity to both UML and NC to purify and improve them. If they can do this, it will immensely benefit Nepal as these parties still pack the punch and still have a big role to play in country’s future.

………but I am still not sure how Maoists led Constitutional assembly will fix the big issues of Nepal. I am hoping best, keeping my finger crossed trying to stay positive as much as I can and how about you?